Supply and Demand Tight Balance Meets Macro Tailwinds, SHFE Tin Seeks Direction Amid Volatility [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On September 15, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract fluctuated rangebound. After the midday break, prices edged up slightly, opening at 273,880 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 275,030 yuan/mt and a low of 272,320 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closing at 273,960 yuan/mt, up 1,110 yuan from the previous settlement price, with a gain of 0.41%. The day's trading volume was 54,239 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,373 lots to 26,117 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. Meanwhile, LME tin futures prices were volatile, quoted at $34,735/mt at 10:00 Beijing time, down $220, with an intraday high of $34,990 and a low of $34,635; by 18:00, it rebounded to $34,935/mt, suggesting that overseas markets maintained a cautious stance amid US dollar fluctuations and uncertainties in trade negotiations.

From a macro perspective, expectations of global liquidity easing have heated up, supporting sentiment in the metals market. Bets on interest rate cuts are increasing, coupled with a manufacturing recovery and the electronics sector entering a restocking phase, collectively providing bottom-line momentum for tin prices. However, with the upcoming US Fed rate decision and US retail data, along with the significant rise in policy negotiation uncertainties in the new round of Sino-US talks, the impetus for price breakthroughs is restrained. Spot market transactions were sluggish, with downstream buyers mostly purchasing as needed, and high-priced supplies dampening restocking willingness.

In the short term, tin prices are constrained by weak demand and inventory pressure on the upside, and supported by tight supply and cost support on the downside, expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Investors need to closely monitor the guidance on liquidity expectations from the US Fed's interest rate decision, as well as the actual progress of supply release from Myanmar and the fulfillment of demand during the traditional September-October peak season.